When making forecasts on financial markets and elections, how can journalists prevent leading readers astray?
Articles which forecast future house prices based on data trends can make for captivating reads. But when results do not go according to the crystal ball, 'predictive journalism' can be misleading and deepen mistrust in the media.
To ensure news organisations do not fall into the same trap that others have in the past, data journalist for The Economist G. Elliott Morris explained the right and wrong ways to go about reporting predictions on datajournalism.com.
In particular, Morris emphasised that journalists cannot leave readers in any doubt about the certainty of their predictions. This often comes down to simple wording, or using visualisations to show how likely it is the journalist could be wrong.
"Communicating your (un)certainty avoids both leading your reader astray and the inevitable backlash journalists receive when they predict something 'incorrectly'," it reads.
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