Old media will have more impact than new media on election result, say industry experts

Old media and the planned television debates will have a bigger impact on the outcome of the forthcoming UK election than new media, delegates at an event at City University London heard last night.

Speaking shortly after the announcement that the BBC, ITV and Sky had agreed terms for a series of three televised debates with the main party leaders, panellists from the BBC, City University and the company behind US President Barack Obama's new media election campaign, Blue State Digital, said old media will still have the most impact on election campaigns and its outcome.

"The leaders' debates are a real boost for traditional media, though blogs and tweets will exploit them, it's pulling the attention back to the TV," said Ivor Gaber, professor of political campaigning at City University London, in the discussion of new media's role in the forthcoming election. "[It will be] a traditional media election with a bit of social media added on."

Fellow panellist and BBC political editor Nick Robinson said the debates, which will be broadcast live in a midweek evening slot, must attract an audience of 10 million or more to have a sense "that it's really captured the nation".

While the debates will feature certain restrictions for the studio audience, such as a 'no clapping' rule, they will still be preferable to watching Prime Minister's Question Time, the current televised interaction between candidates, said Robinson.

"It's taken five-and-a-half decades [to get televised debates]. If we cannot be excited after five-and-a-half decades about seeing the PM and politicians debate the issues, what more do you want?" he said.

"There's a cynicism about the rules here that is over the top. There are things you won't get, but there are things you will get because they've ruled out the bear pit.

"They've ruled out the heckling and shouting. To get three guys to agree with this they had to set some rules. Would I trade what we have [PMQs] for four hours of our leaders debating on national TV, you bet I would."

The preparation required for participating in the events will see the party leaders turning down other media opportunities, affecting the news agenda, added Robinson.

Historically big news stories and media moments during election campaigns happen when candidates are unprepared, but these "gaffes" and slip-ups may still be captured by new media, such as cameraphones and shared on YouTube, he said.

While the election will be dominated by old media, Matthew McGregor from Blue State Digital, said the televised debates will be new media events too and parties will have to fight to shape the news agenda and media coverage online and offline, with many parties bypassing mainstream media in an attempt to reach potential voters.

"The debates are moments that people talk about in the pub the next day, and increasingly do online. Those conversations can increasingly be shaped and used to motivate people, activists. The way the parties use those moments to shape the way events are reported and the way people view them is going to be very important," he said.

"Tweets don't win elections, people win elections, but new media can organise them."

Old media will carry views on election campaigning that most people will hear, but new media can provide an outlet for the views from the street, he said, adding that blogs and tweets will shorten the traditional news cycle.

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